Showing posts with label forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forecast. Show all posts

12 August 2018

Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race, Aug 12 Start & LIVE Feed

2018 Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race: Colombre XL at Muckle Flugga

RORC video above published Aug 18, 2018: Charles-louis Mourruau's Colombre XL (The Lost Boys) round Muckle Flugga in the Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race. The team rounded the most northerly part of the course which is on the 60th Parallel North, the same as Alaska.The video was taken by the Classic Yacht Mariette, thanks to Skipper Charlie Wroe.

Final UPDATE (Aug 27): Giles Redpath's Lombard 46 Pata Negra is the overall winner of the 2018 Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race. Pata Negra scored the best corrected time for yachts racing under the IRC Rating Rule for the 1,805 nautical mile non-stop race.

UPDATE 21 Aug 2018: Tony Lawson's Class40 Concise 8, skippered by Jack Trigger, finished the Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race on Monday 20th Aug at 22:39:20, less than six hours after Phil Sharp's record-setting Imerys Clean Energy. A huge welcome party greeted the youngest team in the race after they crossed the finish line, including RORC Commodore Steven Anderson, RORC Racing Manager Chris Stone, and Phil Sharp and his entire crew. Concise 8 had chased Imerys Clean Energy around the 1,805 nautical mile course until a broken forestay forced Concise 8 to reduce sail.
"If you race around this course you know it's going to be tough. You want to test yourself and test the boat, and we had everything that we had asked for. The crew and the boat was punished and we feel a real sense of achievement," said Trigger who is a Type-1 diabetic with a goal to compete in the Vendée Globe.

UPDATE 20 Aug 2018: Phil Sharp's Class40 Imerys Clean Energy has taken line honours in the 2018 Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race in an elapsed time of 8 days 4 hours 14 minutes 49 seconds, winning the Class40 Division and setting a new world record in the race for yachts 40ft or under (subject to ratification). The team smashed the previous record by 15 hours. The victorious Imerys Clean Energy crew: Phil Sharp, Julien Pulvé, Pablo Santurdé and Sam Matson were met on the dock by friends, family and fans of the race.
"It hasn't really sunk in yet, but it is just fantastic to take line honours, the win in the Class40s, and break the world record!" exclaimed an elated Phil Sharp. "This is definitely the toughest race in the northern hemisphere, harder than a transatlantic and all credit to the team who stuck at it and were exceptional, especially when the going got tough. You don't expect to do a race like this without breaking gear. We ripped our smaller spinnaker before halfway and for the last three days we have had no wind instruments, so it was back to old school feeling the breeze. During the race we saw real extremes of challenging weather conditions, from heavy downwind, to light upwind sailing, and although in our class we had other competitive boats that pushed us, it turned out to be very much a race of attrition. Many thanks to the Royal Ocean Racing Club for organising a fantastic race," continued Sharp. 
Tony Lawson's Class40 Concise 8, skippered by Jack Trigger was 39 miles behind as Imerys Clean Energy crossed the finish line. Concise 8 are expected to finish the Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race tonight, at approximately 21:00 BST Monday 20 August.

LIVE TRACKER 20 Aug 2018 19:15 BST:
 SRBI 20180820

Official website: roundbritainandireland.rorc.org.

2018 Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race - Concise 8 DAY 4

RORC video above published on Aug 16, 2018: Class40 Concise 8 has the youngest crew in the 2018 Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race. Tony Lawson's team of four led by Jack Trigger, are 23-25 years old. Ollie Mellor racing on board: “Awesome conditions, full on! We have a reef in and the A5 up and on deck it is as wet as hell, and not much drier below but we are just loving it! We have seen over 20 knots of boat speed off some big waves. Time to get two hours rest before we put another reef in before the gybe. We want that lead.”

UPDATE Aug 18, 2018: Nineteen teams are still racing in the Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race, sending passionate reports from the race course: roundbritainandireland.rorc.org/news/blogs.
Retired: R&W, Campagne de France, Phosphorus II, Phort-y, Oman Sail, Esprit Scout, Bam!, Corum, Azawakh, Joanna of Cowes DNS.

The Race ENTRIES: List by class here (pdf). More information here (pdf).

The race in numbers: 1 epic non-stop race; 1,805 nautical miles in length; 28 international entries; 11 x Class40s; 10 x Two Handed.

Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race LIVE Feed:


Sevenstar Round Britain & Ireland Race 2018 - Start

RORC video above published Aug 12, 2018: The Sevenstar Yacht Transport Round Britain & Ireland Race 2018. A gruelling challenge around the British Isles tackled by some of the bravest offshore racing sailors. #SRBI

UPDATE Aug 17, 2018: Six days into the Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race, the two leading Class40s have rounded Out Stack off Muckle Flugga, the most northerly part of the 1,805 nautical mile course. Phil Sharp's Class40 Imerys Clean Energy leads the charge south. Jack Trigger's young team on Concise 8 poses the biggest threat, and Nicolas Troussel's new French Class40 Corum has retired from the race having collided with a shark. Read more here.

UPDATE 16 Aug 2018: Raging north in the Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race
Tough conditions have continued for the fleet racing in the Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race, with competitors reporting 30 knots of wind gusting to 35, with 3-4 metre waves in a confused sea state. As the front runners reach the halfway point, the battle for line honours is raging north of the Outer Hebrides. Class40 Concise 8 skippered by Jack Trigger moved up to second place yesterday and briefly took pole position during the night. However, Phil Sharp's Imerys Clean Energy fought back to regain the lead as the team passed the remote island of Sula Sgeir. Nicolas Troussel's Corum is less than a mile behind Concise 8. Giles Redpath's Pata Negra is still the provisional overall leader after IRC time correction, but Ben Schwartz and Chen Jin Hao's Figaro 2 El Velosolex Sl Energies Group has closed the gap. Read more at link above.

UPDATE Aug 15, 2018: "Big breeze has returned to the Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race; the leading teams are blasting downwind along the wild west coast of Ireland as the chasing pack round the famous Fastnet Lighthouse, cracking sheets for Mizen Head. Phil Sharp's Class40 Imerys Clean Energy leads the fleet but still has over 1,200 miles to go to take the prize. Racing under IRC for the overall race win, Giles Redpath's Lombard 46 Pata Negra is the provisional leader. Ben Schwartz and Chen Jin Hao's Figaro 2 El Velosolex Sl Energies Group leads the IRC Two-Handed fleet." More info at link above.

UPDATE: Aug 14, 2018--Battle in the Celtic Sea--The cold front that brought tough conditions to the start of the Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race have now passed, with the fleet enjoying bright sunshine yesterday and a relatively calm second night at sea. However, the intensity on the race course has been ratcheted up with wind shifts providing opportunities to make gains and losses throughout the fleet. Looking further ahead, 25-30 knots of wind and a significant sea state are expected to affect the fleet in the Celtic Sea and on the West Coast of Ireland ... read more at link above.

Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race start 12 August 2018: Twenty eight teams with crew from 18 different countries started the 2018 Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race at midday on Sunday 12th August, organised by the Royal Ocean Racing Club, with cannon fire from the Royal Yacht Squadron Line signaling the start of one of the world's toughest yacht races. At the start a cold front from the Atlantic provided pewter skies and a gusting southerly wind, accompanied by rain. Several low pressure systems are forecast to give rough weather during the 1,805 nautical mile marathon.

Of the fully crewed yachts racing under IRC, Ross Applebey's British Oyster 48 Scarlet Oyster got the best start. Once the fleet had left the Solent, Giles Redpath's Lombard 46 Pata Negra led the charge on the water, just ahead of Mark Emerson's A13 Phosphorus II. In IRC Two-handed, Conor Fogerty's Irish Bam! and Ian Hoddle's British Game On were locked in a duel that is likely to last for the entire race. The two Sun Fast 3600s have pulled away from the rest of the IRC Two Handed teams.

2018 Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race Preview

Video by Cahto Communications published Aug 13: Following the Skippers Briefing for the Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race, over 140 crew members from 18 countries and 28 teams enjoyed a BBQ and farewell gathering at the RORC Cowes Clubhouse, Cowes. Ian Hoddle (Game On), Mike Golding (Phort-y), Charlene Howard (AJ Wanderlust), Gavin Howe (Tigris) and members of the crew from Phosphorus shared their thoughts on the eve of the 1,805nm gruelling race.

more about sailing below (@ web version link below for mobile)

17 August 2016

NOAA's Revised Atlantic Hurricane Forecast, Are You Prepared? (video)

NOAA Has Upped the Atlantic Hurricane Forecast, Are You Prepared?

David Streit, Commodity Weather Group forecaster, discusses the NOAA's Atlantic hurricane forecast with Bloomberg's Vonnie Quinn and Shery Ahn on "Bloomberg Markets" August 11, 2016
Graphic: 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update 
Graphic: 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names

Atlantic hurricane season still expected to be strongest since 2012 | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: "August 11, 2016 In its updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, NOAA calls for a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent, from the initial outlook issued in May. The season is still expected to be the most active since 2012 ..."

2016 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Summary (source: NOAA, 11 Aug 2016):

a. Predicted Activity
NOAA's updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates an 85% chance that season will either be near-normal or above-normal. The outlook calls for a 50% chance of a near-season, a 35% chance of an above-normal season, and only a 15% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

Compared to the pre-season outlook issued 27 May, the probability of either a near-normal or above-normal season has increased to 85% (compared to 75% in May), and the probability of a below-normal season has decreased to 15% (from 25% in May). The season is still expected to be the strongest since 2012.

This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it is difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development. The outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2016 hurricane season:
  • 12-17 Named Storms, which includes Alex in January
  • 5-8 Hurricanes, which includes Alex in January
  • 2-4 Major Hurricanes
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 85%-150% of the median.
Each of these ranges is higher than was predicted in the May outlook (which indicated likely ranges of 10-16 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes). The seasonal activity is expected to fall within the predicted ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

During 1981-2010, Atlantic hurricane seasons averaged 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and 92.4% of the median ACE.

To date, the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season has produced five named storms, with two being hurricanes. Therefore, for the remainder of the season, we expect (with 70% probability for each range) an additional 7-12 named storms, of which 3-6 are expected to become hurricanes and 2-4 of those are expected to become major hurricanes.

b. Reasoning behind the updated outlook
The strength of the hurricane season is largely controlled by conditions and activity within the Main Development Region (MDR, which spans the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean between 9°N-21.5°N; Goldenberg et al. 2001). This year, although competing factors are still likely within the MDR during the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season, overall conditions within the MDR are now expected to favor a more active season than was predicted in May. However, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding when La Niña will develop and how strong it will become, which leads to uncertainty as to whether the Atlantic hurricane season will be near-normal or above normal.

The main factors that are conducive to a more active season now compared to the May outlook include 1) the disappearance of El Niño's suppressing influence on Atlantic hurricanes, 2) weaker vertical wind shear across the central MDR, 3) somewhat weaker trade winds across portions of the southern MDR, and 4) a stronger west African monsoon.

The main competing factors this season are 1) anomalous sinking motion and increased vertical wind shear in the western MDR (which are somewhat related to the active eastern Pacific hurricane season), and 2) less conducive global sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. A stronger La Niña could weaken or dissipate some of these competing factors and result in an above-normal season, while a weak or non-existent La Niña may allow these conditions to persist and thereby favor a near-normal season. Model predictions are now generally calling for only a border-line weak La Niña to form during August-October.

Activity to Date
:
Five named storms (Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, and Earl) have formed in the Atlantic basin to date. Alex, which formed last January, and Earl became hurricanes. Four storms to date have made landfall, including Bonnie in South Carolina, Connie in western Florida, Danielle in eastern Mexico, and Earl in Belize and Mexico.

Preparedness for Tropical Storm and Hurricane Landfalls:
It only takes one storm hitting an area to cause a disaster, regardless of the overall activity. Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions are urged to prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook.

Predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not reliably predictable weeks or months in advance. Therefore, it is currently not possible to accurately predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a particular locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season.

More info:

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